Capital One Financial
Capital One disclosed unauthorized access affecting about 100 million people in the United States and 6 million in Canada.
-10.6% COF vs -2.9% SPY
This site shows how share prices moved after an incident became public. It does not prove that the incident caused the move. Company news, sector moves and the wider market can affect every result. Educational only — not investment advice.
Disclosure timing
When could the market react?
The baseline is the last adjusted close before the news was public. The reaction session is the first close afterward.
- 01Baseline sessionJul 29, 2019
Normalized to 100 for both COF and SPY.
- 02Public disclosureJul 29, 2019, 7:11 PM EDT
Documented publication time.
- 03First reaction closeJul 30, 2019
-5.9% company total return versus -0.2% for SPY; -5.6 pp market-relative return.
Time windows
Company vs SPY
Each row uses the last trading session on or before its target date. “Market-relative” is the company return minus the SPY return, in percentage points.
| Window | Endpoint | COF | SPY | Market-relative | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First reaction | Jul 30, 2019 | -5.9% | -0.2% | -5.6 pp | Below SPY |
| +7 days | Aug 5, 2019 | -10.2% | -5.9% | -4.4 pp | Below SPY |
| +1 month | Aug 29, 2019 | -10.6% | -2.9% | -7.7 pp | Below SPY |
| +3 months | Oct 29, 2019 | -2.1% | +1.0% | -3.2 pp | Below SPY |
| +6 months | Jan 29, 2020 | +5.3% | +9.4% | -4.1 pp | Below SPY |
| +12 months | Jul 29, 2020 | -30.2% | +10.0% | -40.2 pp | Below SPY |
Compare with current catalog aggregates
| Window | This case | Catalog median | Catalog mean | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First reaction | -5.6 pp | -0.8 pp | -1.5 pp | 30 |
| +7 days | -4.4 pp | -2.0 pp | -4.0 pp | 30 |
| +1 month | -7.7 pp | -6.6 pp | -6.8 pp | 30 |
| +3 months | -3.2 pp | -5.1 pp | -6.6 pp | 30 |
| +6 months | -4.1 pp | -5.6 pp | -7.5 pp | 30 |
| +12 months | -40.2 pp | -3.7 pp | -10.1 pp | 30 |
Normalized total return
COF compared with SPY
Baseline session = 100. Adjusted close reflects splits and reinvested distributions.
Capital One Financial had -30.2% company total return versus +10.0% for SPY; -40.2 pp market-relative return. The chart shows normalized adjusted-close performance for up to 24 months.
View tabular chart fallback
| Date | COF | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2019 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Aug 27, 2019 | 86.1 | 95.2 |
| Sep 26, 2019 | 94.4 | 99.0 |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 96.6 | 100.5 |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 103.9 | 104.4 |
| Dec 26, 2019 | 107.7 | 108.1 |
| Jan 28, 2020 | 106.2 | 109.5 |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 93.1 | 99.6 |
| Mar 27, 2020 | 57.8 | 85.4 |
| Apr 28, 2020 | 66.6 | 96.3 |
| May 28, 2020 | 72.1 | 102.1 |
| Jun 26, 2020 | 64.3 | 101.5 |
| Jul 28, 2020 | 67.4 | 108.7 |
| Aug 26, 2020 | 69.8 | 117.6 |
| Sep 25, 2020 | 73.0 | 111.7 |
| Oct 26, 2020 | 78.9 | 115.3 |
| Nov 24, 2020 | 96.3 | 123.4 |
| Dec 24, 2020 | 102.6 | 125.9 |
| Jan 27, 2021 | 108.3 | 127.7 |
| Feb 26, 2021 | 127.2 | 129.8 |
| Mar 29, 2021 | 133.8 | 135.5 |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 152.8 | 142.9 |
| May 27, 2021 | 171.6 | 143.5 |
| Jun 28, 2021 | 165.5 | 146.8 |
| Jul 28, 2021 | 171.2 | 150.7 |
| Jul 29, 2021 | 173.9 | 151.3 |
Price recovery
Recovered
Here, recovery only means that adjusted close reached the baseline again. It does not mean every effect of the incident ended.
- State
- Recovered
- Initial trough
- -10.2% on Aug 5, 2019
- Recovery close
- Nov 5, 2019
- Calendar days
- 99
- Observation cap
- 24 months after disclosure
Hypothetical $1,000
What would $1,000 have looked like?
Compare $1,000 in COF with $1,000 in SPY, bought and measured on the same dates.
Entry Aug 1, 2019 Exit Jan 31, 2020
Uses fractional shares and adjusted close. Leaves out taxes, fees and slippage. The holding period starts on the purchase date. This is a historical illustration, not an investment strategy.
Case note
Capital One announced that an outside individual had obtained application and customer information involving roughly 106 million people across the United States and Canada. It also estimated incremental response costs for 2019.
The issuer’s distributed announcement is timestamped 7:11 p.m. EDT, after the regular market session. July 29 is therefore the baseline and July 30 is the first reaction close. This timing rule avoids counting a price move before the public could trade on the disclosure.
Evidence
Sources and case review
We qualify each case before checking its price results. These links support the disclosure date, listing, incident and business impact.
- primary Jul 29, 2019Capital One announces data security incident Capital One Financial Supports: Disclosure, Listing, Impact, Description
- primary Jul 29, 2019Capital One announces data security incident Capital One / PR Newswire Supports: Disclosure, Timing, Impact, Description
- Listing evidenceChecked Jul 20, 2026Capital One announces data security incident Capital One Financial The issuer announcement identifies Capital One as NYSE: COF and documents the incident's market disclosure.
Why it is included. The issuer was the direct victim, quantified both the affected population and expected incremental cost, and published a timestamped after-hours announcement before market-return inspection. Reviewed Jul 20, 2026.